ANALYSIS - The 2019 Election - Nominations, numbers and opportunities!

On the (expected) eve of the official writ drop, we bring you the numbers!

Less than 6 weeks out from election day, #elxn43 has yet to be called – but pundits and parties alike are excitedly awaiting the expected writ-drop tomorrow! Planes and buses are being stocked, campaign offices unveiled, and the central offices of the political parties are buzzing with anticipation.

It is difficult to have a clear picture of what this election has in store while nominations for most major political parties (other than the Conservative Party of Canada, that has nominated a full slate of candidates) are still ongoing, but in looking at the preliminary data on women’s representation and candidates we can make a few observations:

  • The Green Party of Canada has the largest total number of women candidates seeking election to date, with 129 out of 308 nominated candidates. With 30 ridings remaining, they are on track to maintain, or exceed, their 2015 record for the total number of women running under the Green Party banner this election.
  • The Liberal Party of Canada has the second highest total number of women candidates to date, with 116 women out of 302 total candidates currently nominated. With 105 women having run for the Liberals in the 2015 election, this is a welcomed increase in the total number and percentage of women running to be Members of Parliament. With less than 40 ridings still in play to fill their slate of candidates, there’s still an opportunity for an even larger increase.
  • We know for certain that the Conservative Party of Canada has nominated a record number of women candidates for their party – a difference of 11 percentage points from 2015. This is a significant jump, from 66 women to 106 women out of 338 ridings, in just one election cycle and presents an excellent opportunity for the ultimate election of more women candidates on October 21st.
  • The New Democratic Party of Canada is closest to reaching parity according to our most recent analysis, with 104 women nominated out of 205 completed nomination meetings. However, with so many ridings still without a candidate, it is difficult to say with certainty whether or not they will exceed their 2015 number of 146 (43%) women-identifying candidates. Given their history of nominating a high percentage of women, and the current numbers, there’s little doubt that their final numbers will likely reflect the highest total and percentage of women vying for a seat in the House of Commons compared to the other parties.
  • The Bloc Quebecois nominated 78 candidates in 2015 (filling each riding in the province of Quebec), 22 of which were women. Currently, out of 57 nominated candidates, 20 are women - suggesting they will at a minimum maintain, but likely exceed, the number of women candidates this time around.
  • With almost a full slate of nominated candidates across the country, women running for the People’s Party of Canada represent approximately 15% of their total nominated candidates, by far the lowest of all parties. With only a few ridings left unfilled, this number is unlikely to increase only marginally.

While far from Equal Voice’s ultimate goal of parity, there has been demonstrable progress in terms of the total number of women nominated for the upcoming election, and significant efforts by most political parties to see this number increase.

 

 

We can see a clear pattern of progress for all parties that ran candidates in 2015, leaving ample room for optimism leading into the 2019 election period. While the preliminary numbers suggest an increase in the number of women running for most political parties, what does this mean for the ultimate outcome of the 43rd general election?

Stay tuned for more a more in-depth analysis by Equal Voice!

 

*Numbers were retrieved by Equal Voice from a variety of sources and are accurate within a small margin of error as of September 9th, 2019. Only some were verified by the political parties at the time of posting.*

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