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FEDERAL ELECTION 2004

What would the June 28 election results have been under Proportional Representation?

What would last week's election results have been if Canada had proportional representation?

This isn't an academic question. Many commentators are stating how the election results have left Canada divided.

"The West reminded us yet again that it is unalterably conservative." "Atlantic and Central Canada (Quebec and Ontario) said no to the rise of the right." "Urban Ontario is now the heartland of the Liberal party."

All false or exaggerated.

Westerners cast 46% of their ballots for the Conservatives, but 54% for the Liberals, NDP or Greens.

Quite a few Central and Eastern Canadians -- 23% of us -- said yes to the right.

True, 95% of Toronto's MPs are Liberals. But Toronto voted 56% Liberal, not 95%. It gave 44% of its votes to the Conservatives, NDP and Greens.

Under proportional representation, 56% of the votes gives a party 56% of the MPs, not 95%.

Some people are saying "the only reason Jack Layton wants proportional representation is because it will help the NDP."

But it's not just Jack Layton, and it's not just the NDP.

It's true that our skewed First-Past-The-Post system just gave the Bloc QuĂbĂcois almost three times as many seats as the NDP with fewer votes.

But that's not the biggest disservice First-Past-The-Post has just done Canada.

It's the fact that 1,771,652 Western Conservative voters elected 68 Conservative MPs, while 2,046,218 Western Liberal, NDP and Green voters elected only 23 MPs.

Meanwhile in Ontario, 1,592,724 Conservatives voters elected only 24 MPs, while the 2,260,172 Liberal voters elected 75 MPs.

Proportional representation would have shown us this is still one country.

The first past the post system has exaggerated the regional split which is making everyone angrier.

And Equal Voice, the national advocacy group for the election of more women, has noted "women politicians appear stalled at about one-fifth, the informal "glass ceiling" which pertains across the country."

So what would the election results have been under proportional representation?

The Conservatives would have elected seven MPs in Quebec instead of none. They would have elected 34 MPs in Ontario, 10 more than they did. In the Maritimes they would have gotten three (not two) in New Brunswick, and one in PEI.

That's 19 more Conservative MPs from Eastern and Central Canada. People like Lida Preyma from Etobicoke and Josee Verner from Quebec City.

Never heard of them? Lida Preyma is a bright young woman who graduated in International Relations only two years ago, and was one of the two top vote-getters in the west half of Toronto for the Conservatives.

Josee Verner, one of the Tories' rare stars in Quebec, is a highly experienced communicator. She almost stopped the Bloc in the Louis-St-Laurent riding.

The Liberals would have strong western voices in caucus. They would have elected six MPs from Alberta, not just two, and four from Saskatchewan, not just one. They would have elected five Manitoba MPs, not just three, and added three more BC MPs to the eight they elected.

The Bloc QuĂbĂcois would have had 37 MPs, not 54.

But all this assumes voters voted as they did June 28. Of course more would have felt free to vote for their first choice, not against their last choice. The Quebec Conservatives, the NDP and the Greens would have done better.

The NDP would have had MPs in every province: one in Newfoundland, one in PEI, two in New Brunswick, and four in Quebec. It would have had 19 in Ontario, not just seven. Instead of being shut out in Saskatchewan and Alberta, it would have had four MPs in Saskatchewan and three in Alberta. And it would have doubled its BC MPs, getting 10 instead of five.

The Green Party, instead of being shut out, would have had five Ontario MPs, and two in each of Quebec, Alberta and BC.

Canada would have had a minority government, which we got anyway.

Would we never have another majority government? That's up to the voters.

Every vote would have counted. We would have gotten what we voted for.

In 1984 Canadians trusted Brian Mulroney with more than 50% of our votes. Last year's election for the Wales Assembly, under proportional representation, resulted in a majority Labour government -- and in an Assembly which is one-half women.

A country that derives its legitimacy from the democratic process has a duty to increase the incentives for people to vote.

Electoral reform is about democracy, the ways to strengthen it, and the price we will all pay if it is allowed to weaken further.

WILFRED DAY, Equal Voice Supporter


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