IN THE NEWS
Jan 09, 2006

Can Harper seduce women?
Byline: John Ivison
Source: National Post

TORONTO and LAMBETH, Ont. - Carolina McBride represents the Holy Grail for the Conservative party.

A 36-year-old clinical psychologist and new mother who lives in downtown Toronto, she voted Liberal in 2004 but has been impressed with a number of Tory policies this time around.

"I'm disappointed with the Liberal scandal. The Conservatives will be tougher on gun control -- the shooting in Toronto has scared me. And I like what they are saying about the GST and childcare."

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, Ms. McBride says she may still end up voting Liberal. The reason for her resistance to the Tories has a name: Stephen Harper.

"I don't like Harper's personality. He strikes me as cunning and not trustworthy. I don't like his position on same-sex marriage, I don't think he'd be a good representative for Canada internationally and I don't think he cares if Quebec separates from Canada.

"I'm not impressed with the Liberals either, so it'll be a tough call. But if the Conservatives had a different leader, I'd definitely vote for them."

If the Conservatives hope to win the Jan. 23 election -- or have any hope of ever aiming beyond a minority government -- winning over women like Ms. McBride will be crucial. The party has made considerable effort to tailor its policies to appeal more to women voters, yet signs suggest it still has work to do.

Ms. McBride is not alone in identifying the leader as the problem. Rachel, a 35-year-old Bay Street lawyer who preferred not to give her surname, said she would not vote Conservative while Mr. Harper is leader, despite calling herself a "fiscal conservative."

"What sticks in my mind is, after Belinda Stronach's defection, he [Mr. Harper] made an incredibly sexist comment about her and that goes to the core of their image problem. I won't forget that. I don't disagree with any of the policies the Conservatives have brought out but the image in my mind pre-dates this election."

(When Ms. Stronach quit the Tories for the Liberals, she complained Mr. Harper was not sensitive to the needs of a "big and complex" country, prompting the Tory leader to shoot back: "I

never really noticed complexity to be Belinda's strong point.")

Historically, the Conservatives have struggled to win over female voters. An Ipsos Reid poll last week found 36% of women intended to vote Liberal, compared with 29% of men. Women's support was 38% last month, suggesting some softening toward Mr. Harper.

Marjory LeBreton, a Conservative Senator and former top aide to Brian Mulroney, argues the image of Mr. Harper held by people like Ms. McBride is rooted in a lack of familiarity with the Tory leader. She once shared their skepticism -- on the day her beloved Progressive Conservative party merged with Mr. Harper's Alliance, she turned up dressed in black "because it reflects my mood." But she says she has undergone a "re-education" and now travels with the Harper tour as a special advisor.

"I actually think he [Mr. Harper] got a bad knock in the last campaign, with the Liberal ads that made him look like he had horns on his head. But I think people are seeing the real Stephen Harper now, not the one painted by the Liberals."

She admits that winning over women is "a hill we have to climb," but says the party has built a platform that is geared to appealing to families.

"Those barriers are breaking down. I just think they are opinions that were formed that aren't accurate and they will take time to overcome."

Barry McLoughlin, of Ottawa-based media consultants McLoughlin Media, said Mr. Harper deserves credit for presenting a more appealing face to voters. "He had a terrible image in the last campaign, but he has morphed himself into a more mainstream politician ... more amiable, less angry, calm and cool under pressure."

However, he notes it is hard to shift ingrained perceptions.

"In politics, you rarely get a chance to make a second impression. It took Joe Clark [the former Conservative leader] 20 years to make a second impression."

Since the 2004 campaign, Mr. Harper has sought to soften his image and move the Tories toward the middle of the political spectrum, with policies targeted at suburban, middle-class voters that are also calculated to appeal to women.

The party is promising payments for daycare, tax breaks for children involved in organized sports and a cut in the GST that would be most felt in retail purchases. Mr. Harper has also worked on his own image, portraying himself as a family man and sports fan who is more comfortable in the spotlight and among crowds than the austere figure from the 2004 campaign.

The problem for the party may be that the antipathy it faces among some women is personal rather than political.

"I hate Stephen Harper with a passion," said Lauren, 23, an NDP supporter from Milton, Ont., who was among four young women from the book publishing industry cornered in a downtown Toronto Starbucks.

"He's a little George Bush. I think he's a snake and I don't trust him."

Even Mr. Harper's efforts to moderate his image were ridiculed. "He's been backtracking but that's worse. He's willing to say whatever it takes," said Nicole, a 32-year-old who lives downtown and also intends to vote NDP.

Pressed on why they "distrusted" Mr. Harper, the conversation came round to abortion, even though the Conservative leader has repeatedly pledged he will not legislate on the issue.

"Women's bodies are nothing to do with the government. If he had his way, he'd rule out gay marriage as illegal and would try to ban abortion," said Lauren.

"He doesn't respect the complexity and dynamic of this country, which has a lot of people from a lot of other countries," said Jane, a 28-year-old Asian-Canadian Liberal voter from downtown Toronto.

Outside Toronto the Tory leader may fare better, as does his party. Over tea and biscuits with a group of fifty- and sixtysomething ladies on a farm near Lambeth, a predominantly rural community outside London, Ont., a more sympathetic picture of Mr. Harper emerges.

"I don't feel afraid of Stephen Harper. I've met him two or three times and I like the way he is handling himself," said Moira Connell, a 55-year-old who operates three agricultural businesses with her husband.

"The Liberals have been in too long. I'm frustrated when the Prime Minister comes out fear-mongering. That concerns me."

Karen, a 62-year-old retired businesswoman, said she intends to vote Conservative and does not fear a Harper government.

"I think what is really needed is change. Power corrupts and the only viable change today would be the Conservatives."

Even among Liberal supporters, there is not the same distrust of the Conservatives.

"I don't have a problem with Harper as a man. I'm sure he's a good father and so on," said Carolyn Murray, a 60-year-old elementary school teacher. "I do have a problem with who supports him. The Conservative party is not the same as the Progressive Conservative party. It came out of Reform, which was a regional party, no different from the Bloc."

Sue Wardle, a 52-year-old businesswoman, the one undecided member of the group, remains wary of the Tory leader.

"I don't care for Stephen Harper. I don't know what it is but there is a lack of charisma and I don't have a good feeling that he'd stick to his promises. I don't like him raking up the old stuff like abortion and same-sex marriage."

She thinks the Liberals have been in power too long, has ruled out voting NDP because of their intransigent position on healthcare, and is now contemplating voting Green.

"I don't have any alternatives. I'm stuck," she said.

While some polls have shown marginal increases in support from women, the gains that have put the Tories neck and neck with the Liberals have been largely among men.

Mr. Harper's campaign team may have advised him to project more emotion, modesty and confidence. Unfortunately for the Conservative leader, many women voters still seem to believe that he's only after one thing -- their vote -- and won't respect them the morning after the election.